Brazilian energy giant Petrobras has announced a downward revision of its capital expenditure outlook for the next five years, reflecting the continued drop in global oil prices. The company’s updated investment plan for 2026–2030 is now 2% lower than previously projected. 

Lower Dividends Expected Through 2030 

According to Reuters, Petrobras also plans to scale back its dividend payouts. 

• Ordinary dividends for the 2026–2030 period are now estimated between $45 billion and $50 billion, compared to the earlier upper estimate of $55 billion. 

• The company provided no forecast for extraordinary dividends, although earlier guidance mentioned the possibility of up to $10 billion in special payouts. 

Revised Capex Based on Softer Brent Price Outlook 

Petrobras plans to invest $109 billion over the next five years— a reduction influenced largely by the company’s updated Brent crude price assumption. 

• Expected average Brent price for 2026: $63 per barrel 

• Previous estimate: $77 per barrel 

Despite the overall cut, Petrobras is increasing its focus on upstream development. The revised plan allocates $78 billion to oil and gas exploration and production—about $1 billion more than its previous spending outlook. This aligns with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s calls to accelerate domestic production and support Brazil’s economic growth. 

How the New Plan Compares to Previous Budgets 

Earlier in 2024, Petrobras projected $111 billion in investments for 2025–2029, including: 

• $77 billion for exploration and production (up from a prior estimate of $73 billion) 

• A total investment level that was $10 billion higher than an earlier version of the same plan 

Even further back, Petrobras’ initial 2025–2029 budget stood at $102 billion, showcasing how the company has repeatedly adjusted its long-term strategy as market conditions and government priorities evolve.